| HORIZON | BEAR (−1σ) | EXPECTED | BULL (+1σ) | VS PRINCIPAL |
|---|
Based on Overlap v2.3 — a cross-sectional momentum strategy tested across 50.5 months of cryptocurrency futures data, with a realized Sharpe of 2.14 and an annualized return of 138.5%.
How a cross-sectional momentum strategy, left to its own devices across ten patient years, rewrites the arithmetic of a single dollar — and what that means for the principal you hand it today.
At monthly compound, a modest principal quietly reshapes itself across time. Overlap v2.3 — the strategy at hand — has shown consistent behaviour in backtest, with volatility that would unsettle the faint of heart yet returns that, quite simply, pay for the weather.
| Horizon | Projected Value |
|---|---|
| One month | — |
| Three months | — |
| Six months | — |
| One year | — |
| Three years | — |
| Five years | — |
| Ten years | — |
The ten-year figure is, admittedly, implausible to the eye. It is also arithmetic.
Drawdowns of twenty-three per cent are not anomalies in this strategy; they are its rent. The question for the principal at base camp is whether to pay that rent willingly, knowing what the lease eventually returns.